Black Friday: 15 Years of Change — How the Biggest Shopping Day Dissolved

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Black Friday didn't die — it dissolved. Fifteen years ago, the biggest shopping day of the year meant one thing: lining up outside a store in the dark, hoping to grab one of a handful of extreme doorbuster deals. Today, Black Friday is a whole season of deals that starts in October and stretches past Cyber Monday. The numbers tell the story: US online Black Friday sales grew from $2.4 billion in 2014 to $11.8 billion in 2025, and a record 202.9 million people shopped across the Thanksgiving–Cyber Monday weekend in 2025. Here's how the biggest shopping day dissolved — era by era.

The Doorbuster Era (2011–2013)

Back in 2011 through 2013, Black Friday was an event. Stores opened at midnight, and the deals were extreme but extremely limited: think a 42-inch TV for $200, with as few as five per store. Shoppers camped out in the cold, and landing one of those doorbusters felt like winning a contest. The midnight line wasn't just how you shopped — it was the whole experience.

Thanksgiving Night Openings — and the Backlash

Then retailers pushed even earlier, opening on Thanksgiving night itself. For a few years, turkey dinner competed with the deal hunt. But the backlash was real, and it didn't last: Target announced in 2021 that it would close permanently on Thanksgiving, and Walmart followed. The holiday went back to being a holiday.

Cyber Monday Takes the Crown

Through it all, one trend never wavered: Cyber Monday has beaten Black Friday online in every year measured. The keyboard quietly overtook the parking lot as the place where the biggest digital deals happened — an early sign of where shopping was headed.

The Phone Takes Over

Smartphones changed everything. Deal-hunting moved from newspaper circulars to apps and alerts, and shoppers learned to compare prices in seconds from the couch. The midnight line gave way to the early-access list: memberships like Prime, Walmart+, and Target Circle now get shoppers in digitally before everyone else.

2020: The Pandemic Reset

Then came 2020. Store visits on Black Friday fell 52% as the pandemic kept crowds home — while online Black Friday sales hit a record $9.0 billion. The shift that had been building for a decade happened in a single year. Black Friday as a one-day, in-store stampede was gone for good.

Today: A Season of Deals, Broader but Shallower

Now the deals spread from October onward. Discounts are broader but shallower than the doorbuster days: in 2025, peak discounts ran about 31% on electronics and 28–30% on toys. No more camping out for five TVs — instead, weeks of solid deals you can grab from your phone. And shoppers adapted: a record 202.9 million people shopped across the Thanksgiving–Cyber Monday weekend in 2025.

What to Expect This Year (2026 Forecast)

So what does this year hold? Black Friday 2026 falls on Friday, November 27, with Cyber Monday on November 30 — still the biggest single shopping day. Adobe forecasts about $12.9 billion in online Black Friday sales for 2026. That's a forecast, not a guarantee — but the trend is clear: the season keeps growing, even as the single day keeps dissolving.

The bottom line: Black Friday isn't the midnight madness it used to be — it's bigger, longer, and easier to shop. You don't need to camp in the cold to catch the best of it. Check the Member Discounts on our home page for the current deals we're tracking right now.